03
More Specifically,
to Elaborate, There Will Be…
更具体地说，将有......
…More government influence to achieve the government’s objectives, even if that comes at the expense of our free-market, profit-seeking system, with debates between the conservatives who favor this top-down direction and those who favor the free market more. Along these lines, we should expect more government influence on private markets to achieve the government’s objectives. This is needed to achieve the grand plan to reshape the economy and prepare for war. So, we should keep in mind that cost efficiency and national security achieved by the government working with national-champion companies is the primary objective, not profit-making alone, because profit making won’t achieve those goals. We should pay attention to policy shifts that will drive what areas of the economy will benefit most (e.g., the energy and minerals sectors that support the AI technology sector). While there will be free-market winners, there are obvious cases where the best companies in the United States are not good enough to give the United States what is needed (e.g., in advanced semiconductors), so key relationships with aligned producers (e.g., TSMC) to produce in the U.S. are needed to minimize all dependencies on foreign adversaries. Besides the need to domestically produce essential technologies, there is the need to domestically produce steel, autos, and many other essential items. That will mean more onshoring and friendshoring. There is also a recognized sabotage risk of being cut off in a number of ways that will have to be dealt with.
……为了实现政府的目标，即使这可能以牺牲自由市场和追求利润的系统为代价，也会出现更多的政府干预。这引发了保守派内部的争论，一方支持这种自上而下的模式，另一方则更倾向于自由市场。基于这一趋势，我们可以预期政府会对私营市场施加更多影响，以实现其目标。这种干预是实现重塑经济和备战宏伟计划的必要条件。因此，我们应该认识到，通过政府与国家冠军企业合作实现成本效益和国家安全是首要目标，而不仅仅是追求利润，因为仅仅追求利润无法实现这些目标。
我们需要关注政策的变化，这将决定哪些经济领域受益最大（例如支持人工智能技术行业的能源和矿产领域）。尽管自由市场中会有赢家，但显然有些情况下美国最优秀的公司仍不足以满足国家的需求（例如在先进半导体领域）。因此，需要与友好生产商（如台积电）建立关键合作关系，在美国国内进行生产，以尽量减少对外国对手的依赖。除了需要在国内生产关键技术外，还需要国内生产钢铁、汽车以及其他许多重要商品。这将意味着更多的回流生产和“友岸外包”（friendshoring）。此外，人们也认识到存在被以多种方式切断供应的破坏风险，必须对此加以应对。
…A massive deregulatory push in support of cost-efficient production.
......为支持成本效益型生产，大规模放松监管。
…Immigration and deportation actions, with the initial emphasis being on closing the border and deporting undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
……移民和驱逐行动，最初的重点是封锁边境并驱逐有犯罪记录的无证移民。
…Trade and tariff reform.
...贸易和关税改革。
…Challenges in assembling and working with U.S. allies. Japan is our most important ally in the geopolitical conflict with China, so what is now happening there politically is important. Other allies are the U.K. and Australia, but they are not great powers. Europe is weak, has its hands full with its own problems, and doesn’t have a dog in this fight, while it has Russia on its doorstep and can’t fight it without the U.S.’s NATO support. Most other countries don’t want to get into the fight, as what is being fought for by the United States isn’t as important to them as it is to the United States, and they have more economic dependencies on China than on the U.S. The nonaligned Global South rising powers—which, along with China and Russia, are members of BRICS—are countries to pay attention to.
……在联合并与美国盟友合作方面面临的挑战。在与中国的地缘冲突中，日本是我们最重要的盟友，因此那里目前发生的政治事件非常重要。其他盟友还有英国和澳大利亚，但它们都不是大国。欧洲软弱无力，自身问题缠身，在这场斗争中毫无优势可言，而俄罗斯就在它的家门口，没有美国的北约支持，它根本无法与之抗衡。大多数其他国家并不想卷入这场斗争，因为美国为之奋斗的东西对它们来说并不像对美国那么重要，而且它们在经济上对中国的依赖要大于对美国的依赖。不结盟的全球南方崛起大国--它们与中国和俄罗斯同为金砖国家成员--是值得关注的国家。
…The high economic costs of being the dominant world power—i.e., of having the most important technologies, a strong military, and being able to provide soft power—will be greater than the profit-making approach can provide, so how that economic reality will be handled will need to be worked out.
......成为世界霸主的高昂经济成本——即拥有最重要的技术、强大的军事力量以及提供软实力的能力——将比盈利方式所能提供的更大，因此需要解决如何处理这一经济现实的问题。
…The need to lower taxes to keep the electorate happy and to keep money in the hands of those who are most productive. Trump and his advisors believe that a lower corporate tax rate than currently exists (around 20%) will raise total taxation and raise productivity. That perspective is good for the markets.
……降低税收的必要性，以保持选民满意，并将资金留在最具生产力的人手中。特朗普及其顾问认为，比当前水平更低的公司税率（约20%）将增加整体税收收入并提高生产率。这种观点对市场有利。
…Significant reforms of the healthcare system.
......医疗保健系统的重大改革。
There is a very limited time—the first 100 days and then the first two years—to get these difficult-to-do things done, so there will have to be vicious prioritization. We don’t yet know what will be prioritized and how successful the new administration will be when the force of its aspirations meets the relatively immovable object of the entrenched system. It certainly will be an interesting and important time, so let’s stay in touch.
完成这些难以完成的工作的时间非常有限——头 100 天，然后是头两年，因此必须狠狠地确定优先次序。我们还不知道哪些事情会被优先考虑，也不知道新政府在其愿望的力量遇到根深蒂固的制度这一相对不可动摇的物体时会取得多大的成功。这肯定将是一个有趣而重要的时刻，让我们保持联系。