oracle收购Netsuite（案例学习）

 NETSUITE (N) – MERGER ARBITRAGE – 8.5% UPSIDE
NETSUITE（N）- 兼并套利 - 8.5%向上空间
Current Price –$100.52
Oracle 收购 NetSuite
当前价格 – 100.52美元
Offer price - $109
要约交割 – 109美元
Upside – 8.5%
向上空间 – 8.5%
Expiration date – 4th November 2016
到期时间 – 2016年11月4日
SEC filling

This is a bet that Oracle acquisition of NetSuite at $109/share will go through. Since the deal has been announced on the 28th of July, the shares traded close to or even above the offer price. Everyone was sure the deal was going through. But in the last week market’s opinion changed dramatically. Oracle’s CEO Larry Ellison beneficially owns 40% of NetSuite.
这是一个针对Oracle以109美元每股收购NetSuite的交易会达成的赌博。自从7月28日宣布这项交易以来，股价一直接近甚至超过了要约价。每个人都确信这项交易会达成。但是上周市场观点戏剧性地发生了变化。Oracle的CEO拉里.埃里森实益拥有40%的NetSuite。

On the 7th of September the largest unaffiliated shareholder T. Rowe Price (18% stake) opposed the transaction essentially arguing that price is too low. Market hoped Oracle will come up with a higher offer, but that did not happen. Quite the opposite – Oracle extended the tender deadline for the second time (as it did not receive sufficient shares) and said this is the final extension – Oracle will walk away from acquisition if majority of unaffiliated shareholders do not tender. Oracle needs 20.4m NetSuite shares tendered for the transaction to go through.
在9月7日，最大的非关联股东T. Rowe Price（有18%股份）反对这项交易，认为收购价太低。市场希望Oracle会提高报价，但是并没有发生。恰恰相反，Oracle第二次延期了收购的最终日期（因为没有收到足够多的股份），而且说这次最终的延期。如果大多数非关联股东不同意收购，Oracle将取消这次并购。Oracle需要2040万股NetSuite同意这项交易完成。
Some more info and background here.
一些更多的信息和背景在这里。
I admit I have no specific insight about this deal, and likely there are many much smarter guys playing this arbitrage. But my bet is that ORCL strategy of scarring NetSuite shareholders into taking the tender will work – these shareholders have already seen 10% drop in their NetSuite holdings over the last two weeks and probably they do not need any further convincing.
我同意我对这项交易没有特别的远见，且好像有很多非常聪明的人在做这项套利。但是我的赌注是Oracle的策略是吓唬NetSuite的股东去投票同意这项收购。这些股东已经看到在最近2周，NetSuite股票已经下跌了10%，而且很有可能他们不需要更多的说服。
This is a tiny position for me due to the obvious risk that I can lose c. 15% if the deal gets cancelled. I do not believe the price will drop all the way to pre-announcement $75/share, as Oracle’s interest in NetSuite does not disappear even if the deal fails now.
这对我是一个极小的头寸，因为明显的风险是如果这项交易被取消，我会损失15%。我不相信价格会跌到宣布收购之前的股价75美元，因为即使是交易现在失败了Oracle对NetSuite的兴趣也不会消失。
结果：2016年11月6日，收购成功。2016年11月4日，股价是90美元。